What is the Bitcoin market cycle?

The Bitcoin market cycle is the repeating pattern of accumulation, bull market, distribution, and bear market that has historically aligned with the four-year halving schedule. Each cycle has produced a new all-time high followed by a drawdown of 70–85%.

How does the CoinHours Cycle Score work?

The Composite Cycle Score blends Fear & Greed (20%), 200-week MA ratio (25%), halving cycle position (15%), Altcoin Season Index (15%), and total market cap vs ATH (25%) into a single 0–100 reading. Lower scores indicate accumulation conditions, higher scores indicate distribution risk.

When do Bitcoin cycle tops usually occur?

Historically, cycle tops have arrived 12–18 months after each Bitcoin halving. The most recent halving was April 20, 2024, so the conventional top window opened in mid-2025 and extends into late 2025.

What is the Fear & Greed Index?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a 0–100 sentiment gauge produced by Alternative.me. It combines volatility, market momentum, social media, surveys, Bitcoin dominance, and Google Trends. Readings below 25 signal extreme fear and have historically marked accumulation zones, while readings above 75 indicate extreme greed and elevated cycle-top risk.

What does the 200-week moving average ratio tell you?

The ratio of current price to the 200-week moving average is a long-term cycle signal. Readings below 1.0x have historically marked deep accumulation zones, while readings above 3.0x have aligned with cycle tops.

What does the 200-day moving average ratio tell you?

The 200-day moving average ratio is a medium-term trend gauge. A price above the 200-day MA (ratio > 1.0x) is generally considered bullish; sustained readings well above 1.5x can indicate overheated conditions, while readings below 1.0x often coincide with bear markets or deep corrections.

What does Days Since All-Time High mean?

Days Since ATH counts how long it has been since Bitcoin last printed a new all-time high. Short counts (under 90 days) typically occur during active uptrends; very long counts (over 500 days) have historically defined bear-market bottoms and late-stage accumulation.

Is Altcoin Season a useful late-cycle signal?

Yes. An Altcoin Season score above 75 indicates capital is rotating out of Bitcoin into altcoins, which has historically appeared in the final third of bull markets and frequently coincides with cycle euphoria.

What does Total Market Cap vs ATH show?

This metric compares the current total crypto market capitalisation to its previous all-time high. Readings well below the prior ATH suggest the broader market still has room to expand; readings at or above ATH historically align with euphoric conditions and increased cycle-top risk.

What is Bitcoin Dominance?

Bitcoin Dominance is BTC's share of total crypto market capitalisation. Rising dominance typically reflects flight-to-safety within crypto and early-cycle accumulation; falling dominance below 50% often signals capital rotating into altcoins, a behaviour associated with mid- to late-bull-market phases.

What is the Halving Cycle Countdown?

The Halving Cycle Countdown tracks progress through the current four-year Bitcoin halving epoch. Each halving cuts the block reward in half, tightening new supply. Historically, cycle peaks have arrived 12–18 months after a halving and bottoms roughly 12 months before the next, making cycle position a useful long-term context indicator.

What is Exchange Netflow?

Exchange Netflow measures the net movement of Bitcoin onto or off centralised exchanges. Negative netflow (coins leaving exchanges) suggests long-term holders are accumulating and reducing available sell-side supply. Positive netflow (coins moving to exchanges) often signals building selling pressure. Sustained negative netflow has historically aligned with accumulation phases, while spikes of positive netflow have preceded local tops.

Does this cycle data constitute financial advice?

No. The CoinHours Cycle Indicator is market intelligence based on public on-chain and price data. It does not constitute financial or tax advice. Consult a professional before making investment decisions.

CoinHours

Bitcoin Market Cycle

Name: Bitcoin Market Cycle Indicators
Creator: CoinHours

By Twin · CoinHours Editorial · Updated 10 June 2026 · Methodology reviewed quarterly

Bitcoin Market Cycle

Composite Cycle Score and on-chain indicators