10x's Thielen Says Wall Street Ended Bitcoin's Wild Rallies

Bitcoin's run of consecutive double-digit price surges is over as Wall Street traders and profit-taking whales reshape the market, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, speaking on Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets, as reported by Cointelegraph. Thielen still expects Bitcoin to reach $90,000 by year-end, while questioning how much of the spot ETF demand reflects genuine buying.

Why the rallies have changed

Thielen says institutional traders selling call options after rallies have made the violent price explosions of earlier years less common. Thielen, author of the industry history Crypto Titans, says each cycle brought different promoters and different investors. This cycle's promoters come from Wall Street, where investors trade on economic data and Federal Reserve decisions. He expects Bitcoin to rise quickly on news, then move sideways before the next big macro event.

Questions over ETF demand

Thielen estimates that market makers account for up to half of the $60 billion in net spot Bitcoin ETF inflows he analysed, based on a review of Form 13F filings. Those firms hold ETF shares to hedge options trades, so the positions do not necessarily represent a bet on higher prices. "So in the end it was not outright buying," he said. He added that early ETF flows also included retail investors buying through institutions and corporate vehicles, some paying substantial premiums to underlying holdings, but said institutions and some sovereign wealth funds "could come."

The path to $90,000

Thielen says a drop into the mid-to-high $70,000s could come before a year-end move to $90,000. According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin fell to about $76,100 on Friday following Binance's $6.3 billion hack and finished October down 7.3%, citing Coinglass. Thielen compares recent months with early 2023, when Bitcoin rose from around $20,000 to $30,000 amid similar doubts.

Fed policy is a key variable. Cointelegraph reports the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point in September to a 3.75%–4% target range, then held last Wednesday in a split vote, with two officials favouring another increase. Thielen expects another hike by December, followed by a more cautious approach that could help Bitcoin rally toward year-end.

Why he favours Bitcoin over Ether

Thielen, bearish on Ether for more than a year, expects Bitcoin to outperform, arguing too much value from Ethereum activity flows to layer-2 networks. Because Ethereum burns base fees, cheaper transactions can mean less ETH is destroyed. "Everybody wants the highway to be empty so you can go fast... but nobody wants to pay for it," he said. He cited Hyperliquid, whose assistance fund converts trading fees into HYPE that is burned, as a model linking usage to holder value.

What to watch

The next tests for Thielen's view are whether Bitcoin holds the $70,000s, the Fed's December decision, and whether ETF flow data shows outright buying rather than hedging positions.