Bitcoin Threatens $77.7K Support as Recent Buyers Sit Underwater
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed for accuracy.
Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Bitcoin has fallen below the realized price of investors who bought in the past one to three months, putting that cohort in aggregate loss and risking a flip of $77,700 from support into resistance, according to Cointelegraph, citing data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Market: recent buyers in the red
CryptoQuant's Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands metric puts the cost basis of one-to-three-month buyers at $77,700, while BTC/USD traded at around $76,500, Cointelegraph reported. CryptoQuant describes this cohort as speculative traders who are more sensitive to short-term volatility. Their cost basis has historically formed upward-trending support during bull markets. Bitcoin had traded above the level since Aug. 19.
"When BTC falls below this level, however, the same cost basis can later act as resistance as underwater traders use a return to breakeven as an opportunity to exit," a CryptoQuant contributor said in Monday's analysis. The contributor added that the Trader Realized Price has been rising steadily while BTC corrected, narrowing the gap significantly.
Analysis: the next levels below
The nearest lower band sits at a 12% aggregate loss, currently about $68,400. Price last fell through that band at the start of June and deviated up to 12.6% below it over the following month, according to the report.
Below $77,000, Bitcoin is also approaching the realized price of short-term holders, who have held their coins for up to 155 days. That cost basis was $75,832 as of Tuesday, equal to a reading of 1.012 on the cohort's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. Once price falls below the MVRV breakeven, the next key psychological support is an MVRV reading of 0.85, described as an area of "tactical capitulation" or "short trap." BTC/USD last fell through 0.85 at the start of June and recovered it in mid-August.
What to watch
Traders will watch whether Bitcoin reclaims $77,700 or treats it as resistance, and whether the short-term holder cost basis near $75,832 holds. A break below that level would bring the $68,400 band and the 0.85 MVRV zone into focus.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the $77,700 level?+
It is the realized price, or average cost basis, of investors who bought Bitcoin one to three months ago, per CryptoQuant's Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands.
Why could support become resistance?+
CryptoQuant says traders in loss may sell when price returns to their breakeven, capping rallies at that level.
What support levels lie below?+
The short-term holder cost basis near $75,832, the $68,400 lower band, and an MVRV reading of 0.85 described as tactical capitulation.
Sources & Further Reading
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