Bitcoin Win Rate vs. S&P 500 Recovers Post-Midterm

Bitcoin's relative performance against the S&P 500 has shown a notable recovery, with the asset outperforming the benchmark index in half of the past 90 US trading sessions, according to Cointelegraph. The report, published November 5, 2026, places this win-rate rebound against a backdrop of historical seasonal data that has traditionally favored equities in the period following US midterm elections, raising fresh questions about whether Bitcoin can buck that pattern or whether stocks will reassert dominance into year-end.

Event: A 50% Win Rate Over 90 Sessions

The report frames this alongside historical midterm-cycle data, which Cointelegraph says highlights gains for stocks in the period following US midterm elections. The juxtaposition is the crux of the story: Bitcoin is clawing back ground in head-to-head performance even as seasonal history tilts in favor of the stock market over the coming months.

The timing is notable. Cointelegraph's report ties this seasonal tailwind for stocks directly against Bitcoin's recent attempt to reclaim relative strength, setting up what the outlet frames as a tension between two different signals: Bitcoin's improving short-term win rate and the stock market's favorable historical post-midterm setup.

No specific price levels, percentage return figures, or named analysts are included in the available summary and text of the Cointelegraph report beyond the 90-session win-rate statistic and the general characterization of post-midterm stock strength. The report does not specify which midterm election year or cycle is referenced, nor does it quantify the historical post-midterm equity gains in percentage terms within the supplied text.

Market Context: Where Bitcoin Stands Today

CoinHours' own timestamped market data, captured November 5, 2026 at 11:05 UTC via Binance, shows Bitcoin trading at $80,270, up 2.151% over the prior 24 hours, roughly flat over seven days at 0.126%, and down 6.908% over the trailing 30 days. Separately, CoinHours' CoinMarketCap-sourced snapshot from the same timestamp lists Bitcoin at $80,226.12, with a 24-hour change of 2.288%, a 24-hour trading volume of $35.44 billion, and a total market capitalization of roughly $1.613 trillion. The modest divergence between the Binance and CoinMarketCap price points ($80,270 vs. $80,226) reflects normal cross-venue and cross-aggregator variance at the same moment in time rather than any discrepancy in the underlying event.

CoinHours' saved short-interval price chart for Bitcoin, covering 169 observations from a first reading of $80,170.02 to a last reading of $80,261.97, shows the asset holding in a tight band through the session window captured, consistent with the relatively calm 24-hour move implied by the ticker data. CoinHours' global market snapshot, also timestamped November 5, 2026 at 11:05 UTC and sourced from CoinMarketCap, shows Bitcoin's dominance share of the total crypto market at 60.11%, alongside a 24-hour global market cap change of 2.057% across a total market of $2.684 trillion.

Sentiment data from CoinHours' Alternative.me-sourced Fear & Greed Index reading, also captured at the same window, placed the index at a value of 50, classified as "Neutral." This neutral reading sits between the extremes that have characterized Bitcoin's year — the asset has oscillated between risk-on momentum and sharp drawdowns across recent months, as reflected in its negative 30-day change of nearly 7% even amid a positive 24-hour print.

CoinHours Analysis: Reading the Win-Rate Recovery Against Current Data

CoinHours analysis: the Cointelegraph report's 90-session win-rate statistic is best understood as a relative-performance measure rather than an absolute price signal, and CoinHours' own data helps frame the current moment in which that recovery is occurring. With the Fear & Greed Index sitting at a Neutral 50, the market is not exhibiting the kind of extreme euphoria or panic that has historically coincided with sharp divergences between Bitcoin and equity performance. A neutral sentiment backdrop, paired with a 24-hour Bitcoin gain of roughly 2.1%–2.3% across both the Binance and CoinMarketCap feeds CoinHours captured, suggests the win-rate recovery described by Cointelegraph may be occurring alongside a broader stabilization in short-term price action rather than a dramatic breakout.

It is also worth noting the gap between Bitcoin's 7-day change of just 0.126% and its 30-day change of negative 6.908%, per CoinHours' saved data. This pattern — a flat week following a weaker month — is consistent with an asset attempting to find a floor after a drawdown, which could plausibly support an improving short-term win rate against equities simply because Bitcoin's downside momentum has decelerated even if it has not reversed. CoinHours analysis emphasizes that this observation is supportive context only; it does not establish that Bitcoin's win-rate recovery described by Cointelegraph is causally linked to any specific one of these metrics, nor does the supplied CoinHours data confirm or contradict the historical post-midterm equity pattern cited in the report.

The 60.11% Bitcoin dominance figure from CoinHours' global snapshot is also relevant background: when Bitcoin commands a majority share of total crypto market capitalization, its price action tends to more directly represent the asset class as a whole in comparisons against traditional benchmarks like the S&P 500. This dominance level suggests that the win-rate comparison discussed in the Cointelegraph report is, in practical terms, a reasonably clean read on crypto-versus-equity performance rather than being diluted by altcoin-driven distortions.

What to Watch

The central open question flagged by the Cointelegraph report is whether Bitcoin's improving 90-session win rate against the S&P 500 can persist through a period that historical midterm-cycle data has favored for stocks. Market participants will likely watch whether Bitcoin's relative strength continues to build or whether the seasonal equity tailwind described in the report reasserts itself, pulling capital back toward traditional markets. Given CoinHours' neutral Fear & Greed reading and the asset's currently flat weekly performance, the next several trading sessions may offer an early signal of which force — Bitcoin's recovering relative momentum or the historical post-midterm equity pattern — proves stronger into the final stretch of the year. Further confirmation or contradiction of the trend would require additional win-rate updates beyond the 90-session window referenced by Cointelegraph, which was not available in the supplied source material.

Further reading: For background on how Bitcoin and equities interact more broadly, see CoinHours' guide on Gold as an Inflation Hedge — How Physical Gold Compares to Bitcoin, which covers correlation profiles relevant to cross-asset comparisons.

Further reading / context

CoinHours market data as of 2026-11-05T11:05:39.042+00:00 (UTC), sourced through CoinMarketCap; rolling windows.

Asset	Price USD	24h change	24h volume USD
Bitcoin	80226.12004932582	2.287890066464%	35443161736.63661